Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -1600 PAC +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -16.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -12.6 (-3.6) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -13.2 (-4.2) | 142.9 (-1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -13.0 (-4.0) | 142.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -16.9 (-7.9) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#88) | -5.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#72) | -0.59 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#82) | -0.78 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#104) | 0.464 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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