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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–4 on winners
spread MAE 7.3
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisville
@
North Carolina
|
+0.0 | 156.0 | 51% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
-2.5 | 132.2 | 40% | 73–68 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Lamar
|
+4.3 | 142.1 | 67% | 53–52 | ✗ |
Incarnate Word
@
Northwestern State
|
+1.6 | 137.8 | 58% | 49–54 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+11.6 | 147.0 | 87% | 77–73 | ✗ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
McNeese
|
+11.4 | 142.5 | 84% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
East Texas A&M
|
+1.7 | 132.3 | 56% | 69–68 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grambling
|
+14.5 | 132.3 | 89% | 62–83 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Kansas
|
+0.7 | 133.7 | 52% | 56–69 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
New Haven
|
+7.9 | 132.7 | 78% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-8.2 | 150.3 | 22% | 74–64 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
La Salle
|
-6.2 | 139.1 | 33% | 104–77 | ✓ |
Washington
@
Rutgers
|
-4.2 | 139.8 | 33% | 79–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.