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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 13.2
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cal State Northridge
@
Stanford
|
+13.7 | 157.9 | 88% | 80–88 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Texas Tech
|
+15.0 | 162.8 | 88% | 57–87 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Kansas State
|
+25.2 | 160.4 | 91% | 85–94 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
North Florida
|
-11.8 | 151.9 | 15% | 90–82 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Boston College
|
+10.0 | 142.1 | 82% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Harvard
@
Colgate
|
+5.4 | 139.2 | 71% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Florida International
|
-0.1 | 142.6 | 52% | 97–94 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Georgia Tech
|
+13.0 | 141.6 | 88% | 65–89 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Louisiana
|
-3.2 | 127.5 | 34% | 54–63 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Colorado
|
+10.4 | 159.1 | 83% | 86–81 | ✗ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
SMU
|
+15.2 | 167.1 | 88% | 63–110 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Richmond
|
+13.0 | 150.7 | 87% | 77–72 | ✗ |
Washington State
@
Portland
|
-0.3 | 144.9 | 51% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
George Mason
|
+15.3 | 142.3 | 88% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Oregon State
|
-2.5 | 145.0 | 41% | 102–64 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
San Diego
|
-5.1 | 140.9 | 31% | 54–66 | ✗ |
Old Dominion
@
Maryland
|
+7.1 | 148.2 | 75% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.