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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
William & Mary
@
Old Dominion
|
-8.0 | 152.7 | 21% | 83–88 | ✗ |
Bryant
@
Drexel
|
+4.1 | 148.0 | 66% | 78–73 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Coppin State
|
-6.4 | 134.3 | 22% | 68–57 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Miami (OH)
|
+6.1 | 139.2 | 72% | 60–73 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Rhode Island
|
+9.3 | 158.8 | 81% | 78–84 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
UL Monroe
|
-0.9 | 143.0 | 41% | 84–70 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Tulane
|
+2.5 | 138.9 | 57% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
St. Thomas-Minnesota
|
+20.0 | 143.3 | 90% | 76–98 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Saint Louis
|
+11.5 | 150.6 | 87% | 66–74 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Colorado
|
+13.0 | 142.4 | 87% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Nevada
|
+10.7 | 146.3 | 82% | 68–57 | ✗ |
Cincinnati
@
Villanova
|
-2.2 | 138.0 | 33% | 60–68 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Delaware
|
+12.0 | 148.2 | 87% | 80–93 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Butler
|
+19.3 | 140.6 | 91% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.