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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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8–3 on winners spread MAE 8.8 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
IU Indianapolis @ Evansville	+1.8	128.8	60%	40–60	✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston	—	—	—	74–106	—
Merrimack @ NJIT	—	—	—	61–54	—
McNeese @ TCU	—	—	—	61–77	—
UC Riverside @ Arizona State	+11.4	139.7	81%	66–65	✗
Kennesaw State @ Creighton	+11.1	150.1	81%	44–51	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ San José State	—	—	—	76–78	—
Northern Arizona @ Washington	+4.4	138.5	66%	62–73	✓
Prairie View A&M @ San Francisco	+19.2	152.3	89%	76–92	✓
Northern Colorado @ Hawai'i	—	—	—	81–78	—
Northeastern @ Georgia State	—	—	—	64–83	—
Hartford @ Campbell	—	—	—	67–68	—
South Carolina State @ Loyola Maryland	-0.2	143.8	46%	65–75	✗
Eastern Washington @ UC Davis	+10.0	150.6	83%	76–84	✓
North Dakota State @ Cal Poly	—	—	—	60–57	—
Utah State @ Richmond	+4.1	139.3	66%	85–74	✗
Bryant @ Rhode Island	—	—	—	64–83	—
Illinois State @ Eastern Michigan	+8.4	141.9	78%	98–103	✓
East Tennessee State @ App State	—	—	—	67–69	—
Western Kentucky @ Minnesota	+2.4	140.8	59%	69–73	✓
Kent State @ Xavier	—	—	—	59–73	—
Central Arkansas @ Butler	+12.5	137.2	84%	53–85	✓
Western Michigan @ Michigan State	—	—	—	46–90	—

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.