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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 6.1
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+8.8 | 152.8 | 69% | 55–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 147.8 | 77% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 142.9 | 40% | 72–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 167.9 | 80% | 88–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 146.9 | 70% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 146.0 | 77% | 63–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 144.5 | 70% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.4 | 141.1 | 39% | 67–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 140.1 | 58% | 79–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.2 | 142.9 | 83% | 85–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 162.1 | 77% | 66–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 141.6 | 82% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.