Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -325 LIB +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -8.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -7.8 (+2.2) | 143.9 (-7.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -8.7 (+1.3) | 145.8 (-9.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -9.3 (+0.7) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -9.5 (+0.5) | 147.8 (-11.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#74) | 3.2 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#70) | 1.27 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#73) | 1.23 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#54) | 0.580 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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