I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Reynolds Center · March 22, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -4.5 Home covered
O/U 161.5 Under
Money TLSA -218 / UNLV +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total TLSA win
Actual TLSA +11 143 Won
Massey TLSA -9.2 (+1.8)
Massey Totals 169.2 (-26.2)
Bradley-Terry 76%
Weighted B-T 80%
Baseline Plus ML TLSA -10.4 (+0.6) 162.1 (-19.1) 77%
Model 4 ML TLSA -6.6 (+4.4) 161.5 (-18.5) 76%
Model 3 ML TLSA -9.1 (+1.9) 162.4 (-19.4) 80%
Baseline ML TLSA -9.4 (+1.6) 162.4 (-19.4) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TLSA UNLV
Overall 30-8 18-17
Conference 13-5 11-9
Home 16-2 10-6
Away 8-4 7-7
Neutral 6-2 1-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.9 78.6
Avg Pts Against 74.5 79.3
Massey 10.3 (#56) 4.1 (#105)
Bradley-Terry 1.55 (#68) 0.90 (#98)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.82 (#70) 1.02 (#104)
RPI 0.570 (#49) 0.531 (#101)
Shooting & Four Factors TLSA UNLV
FG% 46.9% 47.2%
3PT% 39.0% 35.6%
REB / G 36.9 34.5
OREB / G 10.9 10.6
AST / TO 1.43 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.0% 53.6%
TOV% 15.3% 17.3%
ORB% 32.7% 30.7%
FT Rate 32.6% 28.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 52.3%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 17.3%
DRB% 70.9% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 32.9%

Game Analysis

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