Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -218 UNLV +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -9.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -10.4 (+0.6) | 162.1 (-19.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TLSA -6.6 (+4.4) | 161.5 (-18.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TLSA -9.1 (+1.9) | 162.4 (-19.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -9.4 (+1.6) | 162.4 (-19.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#56) | 4.1 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#68) | 0.90 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#70) | 1.02 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#49) | 0.531 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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