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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 12.7
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chattanooga
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+3.9 | 155.7 | 64% | 109–103 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Arkansas State
|
+5.5 | 150.0 | 69% | 78–103 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
Oklahoma State
|
+6.0 | 150.1 | 71% | 79–89 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
San Diego State
|
-2.8 | 145.6 | 40% | 95–68 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Santa Clara
|
+14.0 | 156.4 | 90% | 62–101 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Stanford
|
+6.7 | 152.3 | 73% | 70–87 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
American University
|
+0.0 | 133.9 | 50% | 83–72 | ✗ |
UAB
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+6.6 | 158.6 | 72% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Samford
@
George Mason
|
+7.6 | 146.2 | 75% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Dayton
|
+4.1 | 156.3 | 65% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.