Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -240 SLU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +25 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -5.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -6.6 (+18.4) | 152.6 (+28.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.8 (+18.2) | 151.5 (+29.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -6.0 (+19.0) | 153.7 (+27.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.3 (+17.7) | 152.5 (+28.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#90) | 3.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#109) | 0.61 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#98) | 0.83 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#61) | 0.538 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.