Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -290 SAM +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -8.3 (+8.7) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.8 (+9.2) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -7.0 (+10.0) | 148.1 (+6.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -8.2 (+8.8) | 143.3 (+11.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#83) | 3.2 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#58) | 0.61 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#58) | 0.49 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#32) | 0.544 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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