Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -260 UAB +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -6.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -6.3 (-10.3) | 155.0 (-21.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -5.6 (-9.6) | 155.9 (-21.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -5.9 (-9.9) | 154.4 (-20.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.5 (-9.5) | 152.9 (-18.9) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#84) | 3.8 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#93) | 0.69 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#90) | 0.79 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#75) | 0.526 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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