See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena · March 19, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread JOES -6.5 Away covered
O/U 160.5 Under
Money JOES -260 / UAB +215
Model Predictions
Spread Total JOES win
Actual UAB +4 134 Lost
Massey JOES -6.4 (-10.4)
Massey Totals 158.9 (-24.9)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 74%
Baseline ML JOES -6.3 (-10.3) 155.0 (-21.0) 64%
Baseline Plus ML JOES -5.6 (-9.6) 155.9 (-21.9) 64%
Efficiency Plus ML JOES -5.9 (-9.9) 154.4 (-20.4) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML JOES -5.5 (-9.5) 152.9 (-18.9) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings JOES UAB
Overall 22-13 24-13
Conference 11-7 13-5
Home 13-5 14-4
Away 4-6 7-6
Neutral 5-2 3-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.1 81.4
Avg Pts Against 68.6 76.6
Massey 6.9 (#84) 3.8 (#103)
Bradley-Terry 0.95 (#93) 0.69 (#115)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.20 (#90) 0.79 (#113)
RPI 0.553 (#75) 0.526 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors JOES UAB
FG% 44.2% 45.7%
3PT% 34.0% 34.1%
REB / G 37.1 39.5
OREB / G 10.6 14.7
AST / TO 1.29 1.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 50.7%
TOV% 16.6% 13.9%
ORB% 30.4% 38.8%
FT Rate 24.0% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 15.5%
DRB% 72.6% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 19.4% 21.1%

Game Analysis

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