Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -125 FAU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -3.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.9 (+3.1) | 148.7 (+16.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -4.0 (+3.0) | 149.0 (+16.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.3 (+2.7) | 146.9 (+18.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.9 (+3.1) | 147.8 (+17.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#79) | 3.7 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#68) | 0.43 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#66) | 0.55 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#56) | 0.531 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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