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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toledo
@
Akron
|
+9.9 | 154.0 | 82% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-0.4 | 140.7 | 49% | 71–60 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Duke
|
+11.3 | 138.2 | 85% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Irvine
|
+0.9 | 137.9 | 59% | 71–64 | ✗ |
California Baptist
@
Utah Valley
|
+2.0 | 140.8 | 60% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Yale
|
+8.0 | 139.6 | 81% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
-0.3 | 173.1 | 48% | 75–86 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+4.5 | 137.2 | 69% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
South Florida
|
+4.1 | 150.3 | 68% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Michigan
|
+8.8 | 148.4 | 82% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.