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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toledo
@
Akron
|
+8.7 | 153.9 | 81% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-0.2 | 142.1 | 45% | 71–60 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Duke
|
+10.5 | 140.0 | 84% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Irvine
|
+0.6 | 140.7 | 59% | 71–64 | ✗ |
California Baptist
@
Utah Valley
|
+2.1 | 141.0 | 56% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Yale
|
+7.8 | 138.9 | 77% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
-1.2 | 175.6 | 41% | 75–86 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+4.2 | 136.7 | 68% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
South Florida
|
+4.3 | 148.5 | 65% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Michigan
|
+7.9 | 148.3 | 74% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.