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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–2 on winners
spread MAE 4.7
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisville
@
Duke
|
+9.9 | 145.3 | 80% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Liberty
|
+6.0 | 137.3 | 76% | 67–79 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Jackson State
|
+0.8 | 140.2 | 51% | 60–56 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
UC San Diego
|
+3.7 | 136.7 | 67% | 61–75 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Utah Valley
|
-1.0 | 144.6 | 43% | 89–82 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Yale
|
+6.0 | 154.0 | 66% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Florida
|
+4.1 | 139.0 | 61% | 77–86 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
VCU
|
+6.6 | 130.0 | 77% | 63–68 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Memphis
|
+7.9 | 157.3 | 82% | 72–84 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Michigan
|
-2.1 | 145.2 | 37% | 53–59 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.