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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–3 on winners
spread MAE 5.6
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VCU
@
Illinois
|
+11.5 | 159.7 | 85% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Nevada
|
+7.5 | 148.8 | 75% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Nebraska
|
-0.6 | 150.3 | 48% | 72–74 | ✗ |
High Point
@
Arkansas
|
+11.6 | 175.9 | 85% | 88–94 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Purdue
|
+7.3 | 153.1 | 75% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Iowa State
|
+7.1 | 149.4 | 74% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Wake Forest
|
+5.7 | 148.4 | 70% | 78–75 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Kansas
|
-1.2 | 146.4 | 46% | 67–65 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Virginia
|
-0.4 | 142.2 | 48% | 79–72 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Auburn
|
+13.1 | 145.0 | 88% | 85–91 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Tulsa
|
+9.7 | 169.1 | 81% | 66–77 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Florida
|
+7.3 | 146.7 | 75% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.