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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West Georgia
@
Troy
|
+16.1 | 159.8 | 93% | 93–89 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Delaware
|
+0.5 | 161.3 | 52% | 89–66 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Jacksonville State
|
+7.3 | 130.8 | 75% | 73–66 | ✗ |
Tarleton State
@
Cincinnati
|
+7.8 | 151.0 | 76% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Xavier
|
+29.0 | 149.2 | 100% | 74–96 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+2.5 | 151.3 | 59% | 61–76 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Incarnate Word
|
-7.5 | 150.8 | 25% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
Kansas State
|
+9.1 | 160.6 | 80% | 82–66 | ✗ |
California Baptist
@
Colorado
|
+8.9 | 155.3 | 79% | 70–78 | ✓ |
Portland
@
Stanford
|
+16.3 | 156.9 | 93% | 72–94 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Army
|
-19.8 | 166.0 | 4% | 84–70 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
UT Martin
|
+12.2 | 146.5 | 87% | 56–73 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
Penn State
|
+17.9 | 158.0 | 95% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Stonehill
@
Bryant
|
+8.1 | 125.9 | 77% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.