Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -950 BGSU +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +16 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | KSU -9.2 (-25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -11.5 (-27.5) | 151.8 (-3.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -7.6 (-23.6) | 150.1 (-2.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -9.2 (-25.2) | 152.7 (-4.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -8.5 (-24.5) | 153.8 (-5.8) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#59) | 6.3 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#38) | 0.05 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#41) | 0.04 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#11) | 0.517 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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