Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -2800 PORT +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +22 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -16.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -16.5 (+5.5) | 148.6 (+17.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -13.3 (+8.7) | 149.6 (+16.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -13.9 (+8.1) | 150.7 (+15.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -13.8 (+8.2) | 150.4 (+15.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#94) | -4.5 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#78) | -0.02 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#130) | 0.28 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#67) | 0.472 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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