Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -9000 SFPA +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +22 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -29.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -24.7 (-2.7) | 146.2 (+23.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -23.1 (-1.1) | 144.6 (+25.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -27.2 (-5.2) | 145.9 (+24.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -25.4 (-3.4) | 146.3 (+23.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#97) | -17.9 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#148) | -3.80 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#108) | -6.06 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#75) | 0.373 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 61.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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