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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–2 on winners
spread MAE 4.9
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisville
@
Duke
|
+11.5 | 146.5 | 85% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Liberty
|
+5.9 | 134.7 | 70% | 67–79 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Jackson State
|
+0.9 | 147.4 | 53% | 60–56 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
UC San Diego
|
+4.5 | 137.3 | 66% | 61–75 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Utah Valley
|
-1.3 | 147.2 | 45% | 89–82 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Yale
|
+5.9 | 163.0 | 70% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Florida
|
+1.7 | 139.9 | 56% | 77–86 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
VCU
|
+6.9 | 130.2 | 74% | 63–68 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Memphis
|
+7.0 | 165.5 | 74% | 72–84 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Michigan
|
-2.0 | 154.2 | 43% | 53–59 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.