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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Norfolk State
@
Gonzaga
|
+27.0 | 158.2 | 99% | 55–98 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
BYU
|
+2.8 | 143.9 | 60% | 73–62 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Oregon
|
+1.6 | 138.2 | 56% | 0–1 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Texas
|
+5.4 | 141.2 | 69% | 53–52 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Illinois
|
+4.4 | 136.1 | 65% | 71–58 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Baylor
|
+5.7 | 141.3 | 70% | 63–76 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
West Virginia
|
+2.1 | 154.9 | 58% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Texas Tech
@
Arkansas
|
+0.4 | 143.0 | 52% | 66–68 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Houston
|
+9.4 | 132.3 | 80% | 60–63 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Florida
|
+11.4 | 154.1 | 85% | 81–78 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.