Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ORE -225 VCU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +1 | 1 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -1.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-135.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -2.4 (-1.4) | 137.5 (-136.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -2.2 (-1.2) | 131.9 (-130.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -3.0 (-2.0) | 135.4 (-134.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -2.5 (-1.5) | 135.4 (-134.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-7 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#33) | 10.3 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#21) | 1.88 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#24) | 2.35 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#26) | 0.584 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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