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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
2–5 on winners
spread MAE 12.6
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Florida
@
Virginia Tech
|
+8.7 | 142.7 | 74% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Radford
@
James Madison
|
-0.9 | 137.0 | 54% | 59–67 | ✗ |
Texas
@
Davidson
|
-4.7 | 142.4 | 26% | 78–76 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Providence
|
+1.2 | 142.7 | 52% | 79–58 | ✗ |
Little Rock
@
Duquesne
|
— | — | — | 76–66 | — |
Cal State Northridge
@
Seattle U
|
+9.4 | 134.5 | 71% | 76–65 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
App State
|
+17.7 | 151.3 | 83% | 78–76 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Boston College
|
+1.2 | 143.5 | 49% | 97–93 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.