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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
App State
@
East Carolina
|
+1.9 | 133.2 | 66% | 67–54 | ✗ |
Western Carolina
@
Virginia Tech
|
+19.3 | 150.5 | 89% | 74–96 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+5.8 | 136.7 | 68% | 58–50 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Iowa State
|
+17.3 | 143.9 | 87% | 62–66 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Missouri
|
+19.4 | 151.8 | 89% | 77–85 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Syracuse
|
+18.4 | 143.7 | 88% | 63–71 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
-5.5 | 147.1 | 27% | 80–69 | ✓ |
Army
@
UMBC
|
+9.9 | 146.1 | 80% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.