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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ole Miss
@
Iowa State
|
+4.6 | 148.2 | 66% | 91–78 | ✗ |
New Mexico
@
Michigan State
|
+7.4 | 150.3 | 75% | 63–71 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
UC Irvine
|
+8.6 | 138.0 | 78% | 61–66 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Stanford
|
+6.9 | 135.9 | 73% | 77–75 | ✗ |
UAB
@
Santa Clara
|
+11.0 | 164.7 | 84% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Arizona
|
+5.0 | 154.6 | 68% | 83–87 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Jacksonville
|
+2.7 | 137.8 | 60% | 87–71 | ✗ |
Army
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+8.7 | 145.7 | 79% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Cleveland State
|
+1.7 | 141.3 | 56% | 73–88 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.