Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Over |
| Money | SCU -275 UAB +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | SCU -11.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -10.7 (-14.7) | 161.9 (+10.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -11.1 (-15.1) | 163.6 (+8.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCU -9.0 (-13.0) | 162.5 (+9.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -10.9 (-14.9) | 161.3 (+10.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#49) | 4.1 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#79) | 0.81 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#68) | 0.90 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#78) | 0.532 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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