Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -305 ORU +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +11 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -6.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -5.3 (+5.7) | 149.0 (+36.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.5 (+6.5) | 149.0 (+36.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.2 (+6.8) | 147.1 (+37.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -4.4 (+6.6) | 149.0 (+36.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | ORU 102 – 80 DEN |
| Feb 20, 2025 | DEN 71 – 60 ORU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | DEN 70 – 68 ORU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ORU 82 – 76 DEN |
| Dec 31, 2023 | ORU 89 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#236) | -7.3 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#232) | -1.61 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#253) | -1.88 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#237) | 0.431 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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