I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
Delaware Blue Hens
66 – 76
FINAL Conference
Towson Tigers
Coastal Athletic Association · Bob Carpenter Center · January 30, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TOW -2.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money DEL +115 / TOW -135
Model Predictions
Spread Total DEL win
Actual TOW +10 142 Lost
Massey DEL -0.6 (-10.6) — —
Massey Totals — 149.3 (-7.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 39% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 38% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TOW -1.3 (-8.7) 141.7 (+0.3) 35% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TOW -0.2 (-9.8) 144.9 (-2.9) 46% ✓
Baseline ML TOW -0.1 (-9.9) 144.8 (-2.8) 40% ✓
Baseline Plus ML TOW -0.3 (-9.7) 144.7 (-2.7) 39% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 10, 2025 DEL 82 – 72 TOW
Feb 14, 2025 TOW 75 – 70 DEL
Feb 9, 2024 DEL 74 – 62 TOW
Jan 27, 2024 TOW 67 – 56 DEL
Mar 6, 2023 TOW 86 – 60 DEL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DEL TOW
Overall 16-20 22-11
Conference 5-13 16-2
Home 8-7 12-1
Away 3-11 9-5
Neutral 5-2 1-5
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.8 69.4
Avg Pts Against 78.7 67.7
Massey -4.0 (#230) -1.2 (#182)
Bradley-Terry -0.63 (#225) 0.40 (#141)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.87 (#228) 0.30 (#153)
RPI 0.471 (#229) 0.536 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors DEL TOW
FG% 46.6% 40.4%
3PT% 38.4% 31.4%
REB / G 32.1 36.8
OREB / G 7.1 13.1
AST / TO 1.18 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.3% 46.1%
TOV% 16.2% 15.3%
ORB% 21.4% 34.5%
FT Rate 25.4% 19.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.0% 49.7%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 16.9%
DRB% 66.8% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 23.7% 23.1%

Game Analysis

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