Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN +120 BCU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | BCU -4.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -3.2 (+12.2) | 131.7 (-0.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BCU -2.8 (+11.8) | 132.5 (-1.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -3.6 (+12.6) | 132.5 (-1.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -3.3 (+12.3) | 131.0 (+0.0) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALCN 57 – 55 BCU |
| Jan 27, 2026 | BCU 82 – 73 ALCN |
| Mar 14, 2025 | BCU 69 – 60 ALCN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 74 BCU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ALCN 69 – 54 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-2 |
| Away | 5-17 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#346) | -5.6 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#337) | -0.80 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#331) | -1.05 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#321) | 0.460 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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