Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +120 MER -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +14 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -1.1 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.8 (-12.2) | 153.3 (-21.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.7 (-13.3) | 152.6 (-20.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.9 (-12.1) | 154.8 (-22.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.4 (-11.6) | 153.6 (-21.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | 3.4 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#167) | 0.61 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#168) | 0.69 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#160) | 0.531 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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