Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MD -200 PSU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -3.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -5.3 (-10.3) | 139.1 (-12.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -2.7 (-7.7) | 135.9 (-8.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -4.9 (-9.9) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -5.9 (-10.9) | 138.6 (-11.6) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#32) | 10.7 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#37) | 1.56 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#32) | 2.57 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#59) | 0.529 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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