Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | CMU +1600 TOL -2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -16.4 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -14.7 (+16.7) | 160.4 (-0.4) | 13% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -12.3 (+14.3) | 158.2 (+1.8) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -15.0 (+17.0) | 158.9 (+1.1) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -16.0 (+18.0) | 160.4 (-0.4) | 16% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-16 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 15-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#299) | 9.7 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#319) | 1.38 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#304) | 1.81 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#329) | 0.577 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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