Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -250 AKR +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -7.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -7.4 (-5.4) | 155.7 (+2.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -5.4 (-3.4) | 153.6 (+4.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.3 (-4.3) | 156.0 (+2.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -7.4 (-5.4) | 156.9 (+1.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-1 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#65) | 3.8 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#146) | 0.70 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#118) | 0.81 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#161) | 0.533 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.