Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -3300 AF +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +30 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -23.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -19.0 (+11.0) | 133.6 (-15.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -17.4 (+12.6) | 129.2 (-11.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -19.8 (+10.2) | 133.2 (-15.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -20.1 (+9.9) | 133.7 (-15.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-1 | 3-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#60) | -11.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#27) | -1.49 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#56) | -1.99 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#25) | 0.422 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 23.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 4.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 15.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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