Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -150 ARIZ +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -2.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -3.6 (+7.4) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -0.8 (+10.2) | 136.3 (+12.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -3.5 (+7.5) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -3.7 (+7.3) | 139.9 (+9.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 24, 2025 | ARIZ 87 – 83 ORE |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ORE 67 – 59 ARIZ |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ARIZ 103 – 83 ORE |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ARIZ 87 – 78 ORE |
| Feb 3, 2023 | ARIZ 91 – 76 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-7 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#43) | 11.3 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#38) | 1.65 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#42) | 2.27 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#41) | 0.559 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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