Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +138 NOLA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +16 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -0.1 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.1 (-16.1) | 141.5 (+18.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -0.1 (-15.9) | 138.4 (+21.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -0.3 (-15.7) | 141.2 (+18.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -0.0 (-16.0) | 141.5 (+18.5) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NOLA 78 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 9, 2025 | NOLA 84 – 83 UIW |
| Feb 11, 2025 | UIW 75 – 65 NOLA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UIW 74 – 58 NOLA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NOLA 87 – 80 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-14 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 8-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#321) | -8.4 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#331) | -2.61 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.36 (#333) | -3.24 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#318) | 0.395 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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