Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SYR +138 UNC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -0.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -0.7 (+1.3) | 148.7 (-6.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -0.6 (+2.6) | 144.9 (-2.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -0.3 (+1.7) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -0.7 (+1.3) | 148.2 (-6.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNC 77 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 3, 2026 | UNC 87 – 77 SYR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNC 88 – 82 SYR |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SYR 86 – 79 UNC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNC 103 – 67 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#56) | 11.6 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#67) | 2.02 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#65) | 2.67 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#65) | 0.581 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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