Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -138 LONG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +16 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -5.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -3.5 (-19.5) | 138.6 (-0.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.6 (-18.6) | 135.5 (+2.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.2 (-17.2) | 139.7 (-1.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -2.4 (-18.4) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#203) | -4.8 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#250) | -1.55 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#259) | -1.77 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#204) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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