Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -250 PROV +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -5.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.3 (+6.7) | 135.8 (-1.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.7 (+7.3) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.9 (+7.1) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.3 (+6.7) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 9-10 |
| Home | 7-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#47) | 7.4 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#56) | 1.42 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#50) | 1.89 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#60) | 0.546 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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