Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -1200 NIU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -22.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -18.8 (-13.8) | 139.2 (+17.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -15.9 (-10.9) | 140.1 (+16.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -20.1 (-15.1) | 140.9 (+16.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -19.8 (-14.8) | 139.1 (+17.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 9-1 | 2-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#89) | -14.2 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#89) | -2.36 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#90) | -3.55 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#89) | 0.399 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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