Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -110 ETSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +2 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -0.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -1.2 (+0.8) | 135.5 (-31.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.1 (+2.1) | 131.9 (-27.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.9 (+1.1) | 134.1 (-30.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.7 (+1.3) | 134.4 (-30.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-8 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#145) | 4.7 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#98) | 0.50 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#115) | 0.96 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#78) | 0.550 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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