Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | PRES -120 UPST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -3.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -2.0 (+8.0) | 134.4 (+5.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -2.7 (+7.3) | 128.6 (+11.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -2.1 (+7.9) | 133.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -2.5 (+7.5) | 133.6 (+6.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-15 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#299) | -10.2 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#323) | -2.16 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#310) | -2.43 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#322) | 0.442 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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