Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -138 UVA +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -0.3 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -1.9 (+19.1) | 136.5 (+4.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.4 (+19.6) | 132.1 (+8.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -2.1 (+18.9) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.2 (+18.8) | 136.6 (+4.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UVA 61 – 58 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVA 60 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UVA 80 – 76 FSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UVA 67 – 58 FSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UVA 62 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Home | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#22) | 16.4 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#22) | 3.02 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#25) | 4.25 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#41) | 0.626 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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