Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MD -150 MINN +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.5 (+10.5) | 138.0 (-7.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -2.1 (+10.9) | 138.6 (-7.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -2.7 (+10.3) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -2.8 (+10.2) | 138.7 (-7.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MD 67 – 62 MINN |
| Jan 13, 2025 | MD 77 – 71 MINN |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MINN 65 – 62 MD |
| Mar 10, 2023 | MD 70 – 54 MINN |
| Feb 23, 2023 | MD 88 – 70 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#42) | 11.4 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#48) | 2.49 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#35) | 3.52 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#48) | 0.577 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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