Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -250 VAL +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -3.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -2.4 (+11.6) | 136.2 (-2.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -2.1 (+11.9) | 134.1 (-0.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.0 (+12.0) | 137.6 (-3.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -2.4 (+11.6) | 135.3 (-1.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#204) | -3.2 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#243) | -0.84 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#230) | -0.99 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#200) | 0.440 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 19.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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