Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | LIU -188 SFBK +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +12 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -6.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -4.5 (+7.5) | 154.5 (+25.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -4.8 (+7.2) | 154.8 (+25.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -4.1 (+7.9) | 155.1 (+24.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -4.0 (+8.0) | 154.2 (+25.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2023 | SFBK 71 – 59 LIU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | SFBK 73 – 66 LIU |
| Feb 11, 2022 | LIU 74 – 69 SFBK |
| Jan 17, 2022 | LIU 80 – 65 SFBK |
| Jan 30, 2021 | LIU 102 – 88 SFBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 9-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-6 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#210) | -6.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#172) | -0.66 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#176) | -0.82 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#203) | 0.434 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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