Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -150 UNCG +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +19 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -4.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -3.6 (+15.4) | 143.8 (-26.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -2.7 (+16.3) | 141.5 (-24.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -3.6 (+15.4) | 146.1 (-29.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -3.8 (+15.2) | 143.5 (-26.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#76) | 5.5 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#117) | 1.06 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#107) | 1.37 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#105) | 0.564 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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