Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +230 GWEB -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -7.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -5.6 (+13.6) | 143.0 (+3.0) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -6.5 (+14.5) | 139.2 (+6.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -6.1 (+14.1) | 142.9 (+3.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -6.0 (+14.0) | 142.7 (+3.3) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#316) | -1.2 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#318) | -1.49 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#312) | -1.62 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#250) | 0.462 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.